I’ve been looking forward to this all season. The world’s two biggest clubs going head to head. The arrogant brilliance of Cristiano Ronaldo vs. the lightning-in-a-tiny-bottle genius of Lionel Messi. Real Madrid vs. Barcelona in the ultimate clas—-

Wait.

What the fuck happened?

The upset of the Spanish giants in the Champion’s League semi-final leaves me in something of a quandary. Chelsea and Bayern Munich are both respectable clubs with talented players, but it’s hard not to see Saturday’s game (11:30 am on the Left Coast of these United States) as anticlimactic, particularly after the drama of last weekend’s EPL finale. Unless you’re in Munich or North London, there’s not much to get fired up about.

So who to root for? Bayern are in some respects the Green Bay Packers of European football. They’re a proper club, owned by the fans, who elect a corporate board. That appeals to my sense of democratic populism, but on the other hand they’re also the richest club in Germany and a perennial powerhouse in the Bundesliga. Chelsea were historically outsiders in the EPL, but that all changed when Roman Abramovich brought his billions and the evil genius of Jose Mourinho to the side. Mourinho is long gone, but they’re still fairly villainous. I love Didier Drogba’s talent, but he’s a flopper, and John Terry is the Snidely Whiplash of the EPL. Happily, though, Terry won’t be playing because he idiotically got himself sent off in the semi-final against Barcelona. Congratulations, John! Hope you enjoy watching. Sorry you’ll have to wait till you play for England to blow an important penalty kick. Instead, we get Sideshow David Luiz, who’s probably good for a goal at both ends.

Chelsea aren’t loveable, but they are slight underdogs. The game is in Munich, so Bayern are clearly the betting favorites. But they’ll also feel the pressure to force the issue, which plays into Chelsea’s tactical set up perfectly. Chelsea have never won the European Cup, which Abramovich desperately wants. Undercutting my sympathy for him and Chelsea will be the obvious bias of Sky’s British commentators. I love to watch the EPL but I fucking hate the English! USA USA!

Though I’m not sorry to see Terry go, it’s unfortunate that the game has been decimated by injuries and UEFA’s draconian yellow card policy. Chelsea’s attacking midfielder Ramires, who’s been their most consistent player all season, is suspended along with Terry. Ditto Bayern’s tackling midfielder Luis Gustavo and their swashbuckling fullback Alaba, who was probably the man most responsible for taking out Real Madrid.

The general wisdom seems to be that the tactical matchup will make for a game that’s tense but sadly lacking in much end to end action. Chelsea will probably sit fairly deep in their own half and invite Bayern to take the ball and try and play through them. The critical matchup will be between Bayern (and former Chelsea) winger Arjen Robben and Chelsea FB Ashley Cole. Bayern will seek to isolate Robben on Cole by playing two out-and-out wingers, Robben on the right and Franck Ribery on the left. They’ll then try to stretch Chelsea’s defense by switching the ball from side to side quickly and attacking in those wide areas. Bayern will be thrilled from whatever change Franck Ribery gets from vulnerable Chelsea RB Jose Bosingwa, but the key matchup will be on the right. Robben’s a left-food player playing on his team’s right side, so he’ll try to cut in on his stronger foot and look to shoot or play in his teammates. You’ll probably see this time and again throughout the match.  He’s very quick and technically skilled, but with a tendency to put his head down and miss his teammates. For Chelsea, it’s critical that Cole and his help defenders not only stop Robben from scoring one of his patented curlers, but also that they deal with Philip Lahm, who plays behind Robben at right back. He’ll be looking to overlap Robben, which means moving into the wide space left open when the Dutch winger cuts inside, and deliver aerial crosses into the box for Bayern’s tall Center Forward, the by turns deadly and comically inept “Super” Mario Gomez. His height provides a threat that Chelsea simply didn’t have to deal with when they defended resolutely and rode their luck past Barcelona.

If that’s the game’s most critical matchup, its because it has a domino effect. When Lahm goes forward, Chelsea striker Didier Drogba or attacking midfielder Juan Mata, will drift towards the space vacated by the German fullback. If Chelsea can force Bayern into turning the ball over, they can look to break quickly into that area. This is where the suspension of Bayern’s best defensive midfielder, Luis Gustavo, becomes critical. Bayern will be forced to play Bastian Schweinsteiger and Toni Kroos, both of whom are good players but just aren’t as good at winning the ball back or protecting their central defenders as Gustavo. That means Mata might find it easier to link up with Drogba, forcing Bayern’s defensive line to shift from (their) left to right. This opens up space for Chelsea’s third attacking player, Salomon Kalou, to burst down the Bayern left, into that newly created space, and find a route to goal.

Other than that, it will likely be Drogba creating on his own for Chelsea. Which could well be enough. He’s tremendously strong, good at winning free kicks and controlling the ball, and he’s got a great record of scoring in cup finals.

Great plan, right? The problem is they’ve got to rely on heroics from Petr Cech and smart play from David Luiz, who’s been shaky at times this season. And even so, they’ll still be riding their luck. Remember: Lionel Messi hit the post and missed a penalty against Chelsea in the Semifinal. And even then it still took Drogba KOing Gerard Pique and the speed of Ramires to reduce the Barca d to shambles. Ramires is a potentially fatal loss for Chelsea. Kalou is a good player, but he’s not as good at the jail-break counterattack as the Brazilian.

The best hope for a neutral, in fact, might be for Bayern to score early. This could force Chelsea out of their shell and make them attack Bayern’s weaknesses—their lack of a holding midfielder and their somewhat shaky CBS (one of whom is also, wait for it, suspended)—directly. Chelsea lack width, but they’ve got players who can pass the ball, and even a few creative options in Florent Malouda, Daniel Sturridge, and the resurgent Fernando Torres, who could potentially stretch the game. If Bayern can force Chelsea to abandon conservative tactics early enough, then we could get a wide open game with plenty of chances at both ends. Bayern are slightly better set up for that kind of play, but Chelsea have more out and out goal scorers on their squad.

So that’s it. My prediction? Bayern 3-1 Chelsea. MOTM? Phillip Lahm.

A thrilling end to the (Barclay’s) English Premier League season as Manchester City won the league for the first time since 1968 in dramatic, oil-fueled fashion.

It was a watershed day for US based footie fans as the competition between ESPN and the Murdoch empire meant that 7 different matches were telecast simultaneously in the US—something which would have been truly unthinkable a decade ago.

City’s victory was reminiscent of the Boston Red Sox improbable comeback against the New York Yankees in 2004. Needing only to beat the league’s worst road team in their own stadium to secure the championship, the notorious chokers seemed to have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory and handed yet another title to their bitter crosstown rivals, Manchester United, when 10-man, relegation threatened Queens Park Rangers took a 2-1 lead in the 66th minute. With Manchester United winning 1-0 at Sunderland, City needed two goals to win the title.

The match had everything. City’s talismanic midfielder Yaya Toure went down with an injury in the first half. Defender Joleon Lescott had an anxiety-induced meltdown sending QPR’s Djibril Cisse through to make it 1-1 just after half-time. Then, QPR and former Man City midfielder Joey Barton lost his mind after a run in with Carlos Tevez. Barton retaliated with an elbow, saw the inevitable red card, and then kicked Kun Aguero for good measure on his way out the door. Classy. His twitter antics in the wake of the match are typically demented.

Still, City were paralyzed with fear and unable to get through the QPR defense, which were packed tightly inside their own penalty area. With Lescott still reeling, the London club managed to break out and make it 2-1 on jailbreak counter-attack.

The scenes inside the Etihad stadium at that point where staggering. Fans were openly weeping, jumping up and down in frustration, and throwing their scarves to the ground. For 25 minutes, City seemed destined to bow down to their own choking DNA, while traveling United fans gleefully celebrated in Sunderland.

Then, in the 90th minute, Edin Dzjeko headed in a corner. As news trickled through to the QPR bench that Bolton had drawn, which left them safely out of the relegation zone no matter the result, their resistance melted. In the 4th minute of Barton-induced stoppage time, Aguero played a tight one two with Mario Balotelli, resisted both a diving challenge from QPR fullback Taiwo and the temptation to dive for a penalty, and won the title at the near post. In Sunderland, United and Sir Alex Ferguson were, temporarily at least, knocked off their fucking perch.

It’s truly a game-changing victory for Manchester City, who have long been the poor relation to their more successful city rivals. The win changes everything between the two sets of fans, and throws down a gauntlet to United to improve their squad. Will the Glazers step up?

That means money. City won the title thanks to a massive cash infusion from their Abu Dhabi based owners.  It says everything about the contradictory nature of modern sports that a game so thrilling and a result so meaningful to a local community was coordinated by interests that are not only unabashedly commercial, but have emerged from a region and context that has little in common with the traditions in which the English game so often wraps itself.

The offseason will again be fascinating to watch. City emerged victorious, but have plenty of question marks. Their victory in the league was narrow, they crashed out of the Champions League, Yaya Toure has made noises about wanting to return to Barcelona, and the antics of Carlos Tevez and Mario Balotelli have been a season-long headache. Their non-Manchester rivals, Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham, Newcastle and Liverpool, are also all faced with major squad decisions. The financial jockeying at the top will be intense. Roberto Mancini has already announced that Man City’s sights are on the Champions League. Can anyone in England stop them, or is it up to the Spanish giants?

At the bottom, it’s a black day for Bolton, Blackburn and Wolves, all of whom will have the cold comfort of parachute payments to offset the dramatic financial loss that relegation entails. Blackburn’s season was particularly traumatic, with fans ending the season in open revolt against the manager and the club’s Indian based ownership. Relegation for these clubs is a huge blow to their local economies.

Saturday May 19th is the Champions League final between Chelsea and Bayern Munich. If Chelsea win, then Tottenham’s flakiness will come back to haunt them, as the Blues (who finished in 6th) will take the 4th Champion’s League spot. That’d be a huge financial and psychological blow for Spurs. If Chelsea lose, however, then they are stuck in the Europa League, and owner Roman Abramovich will likely shake up management yet again. Arsenal did brilliantly to hang on to 3rd, but it’s yet another year without a trophy for Arsene Wenger.

Saturday morning marks another huge game in England—the Championship Playoff in Wembley Stadium. Blackpool play West Ham in a battle between two teams who are both looking to bounce straight back into the Premier League one year after going down. The game means everything to the clubs and their supporters.

I’m going to sign off with the words of Mario Balotelli, spoken in an interview on the pitch immediately after City won: “A lot of people talked bad about me, so now they have to shut up and watch me.”

If you thought the pomp and circumstance for last week’s Liverpool Man United game was bad, you ain’t seen nothing yet.  Sunday’s Manchester derby pits the two prohibitive title favorites (we’re all pretending the whole Chelsea revival thing isn’t happening) for the first time this season - the Community Shield didn’t count.  There’s pretty much guaranteed to be drama, controversy and excitement.  And then Manchester United will win. Like always.

But of course, that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Here’s what’s on American TV this weekend, including a cracking weekend in Spain.

SATURDAY

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Swansea City - Hit the snooze button.  Kidding! Sort of.  After a decent start to the season that had everyone talking about Wolves as a new Premier League fixture, Wolves have gone completely cold. They now find themselves just behind Swansea in the table. Long way to go, but expect these two to be in and around the relegation zone all season.  As such, Wolves will be looking at this as must win.  Swansea will take any away points they can get.  Expect it to be energetic, but short on quality. 7:30am EST, ESPN2 Speaking of the WWL, the suits temporarily Freed Robbie Mustoe! for last weeks Mexico vs. Brazil friendly.  As always, he was a breath of fresh air. Come back soon Robbie!

Dortmund vs Cologne - It’s, uh, not going well for Dortmund in Europe, as they lost again on Wednesday, to Olympiakos, and are currently sitting dead last in their group with one point.  The good news is, it’s starting to get better at home, as 3 wins in a row have lifted them up to 3rd after a slow start.  Still, that’s 6 points behind unstoppable-looking Bayern, and hot commodity Mario Gotze is surely going to start shaking his head sometime soon as his teammates blow chance after chance from a good position.  9:30 am EST, GOLTV

Newcastle vs Wigan Athletic - Congratulations West coast soccer fans! You can sleep in.  Unless you’re a Geordie, or one of the what I assume are 2 Wigan fans living in the US>  Newcastle’s unbeaten start to the season continues after last week’s exciting 2-2 draw against Spurs. They’re a decent team to watch Newcastle, and the black and white stripes evoke fond memories, but they have a real lack of star power.  Unless you count Demba Ba as a star. Which you shouldn’t.  Though Jonas Gutierrez does have a kind of steroidal bodybuilder thing going.  Wigan are circling the drain - Martinez should have got out when the getting was good. 10am EST, FSC.

Hamburg vs Wolfsburg - It’s a battle of the burgs!  Wolfsburg have speedy winger Marko Marin, a man who manages to make Andriy Arshavin look both tall and effective. Hamburg have… the Bundesliga’s worst record. Well they’re tied for it, but still. 12:30 EST, GOLTV

Liverpool vs Norwich City - This has trap game written all over it for the Reds, who will no doubt be feeling a bit emotionally spent after last weeks big clash against Man United (a flat performance in a mid-week friendly defeat against Rangers is a big red flag.) The draw at home against United was a good result — as long as they build on it. Liverpool’s record against newly promoted teams was abysmal last season - two wins and four defeats.  For their part, Norwich have been flirting with a big scalp twice this season, outplaying both Chelsea and Man United for long stretches before eventually losing.  Will this be their day? 12:30 EST, FSC

Barcelona vs Sevilla  - A good one from Spain. Pretty much everything that can be written about Barcelona has been written, but despite a fair amount of Barca fatigue — looking at you, Dr. V — they’re still the best side going. Plus. Messi.  Sevilla are intriguing, and striker Alvaro Negredo has been a force of nature - the kind of player who could give a Barcelona defense that’s unused to playing proper central defenders this season fits.  If Sevilla could somehow get a point at the Nou Camp, there could actually be a multi-team title race in Spain this year. Probably not, but still.  2:30 EST, GOLTV

Juventus vs Genoa -  In the wild west that is the 2011 Serie A season, anything can happen.  Juventus haven’t exactly been tearing it up out of the gates, with 3 wins and 3 losses, but incredibly, that’s enough to put them top of the table, tied with Udinese.  Juve president Andrea Agnelli made the curious decision to kick aging legend Alessandro Del Piero out the door he was already walking out of on Tuesday, announcing to everyone that this was his last season with the club.  Will this slap in the face send him into a deep funk? Maybe, but at this point, it would be hard to tell the difference.  Genoa are rapidly cooling after a hot start. 2:45 EST, FSC

SUNDAY

THE BIG ONE - Manchester United vs Manchester City - When they weren’t too busy discussing which footballers Barry Glendenning would go gay for for the 4th week in a row — seriously, give it a rest guys - this week’s Football Weekly Extra podcast crew suggested that the winner here would lay down a marker for the EPL title. Maybe, mayb not.  Many have wondered at Sir Alex Ferguson’s unorthodox team selection against Liverpool, but by setting up for the smash and grab last week, he ensured himself of a point at worst in a tricky fixture, and further guaranteed that even a loss in an unpredictable derby match wouldn’t completely derail his side’s season.  Team selection will again be interesting to watch, though there’s no doubt that Roberto Mancini will send out the dreaded De Jong, Barry and shackled YaYa Toure combination designed to suck the life out of the game and the viewing audience.  Any chance of a Paul Scholes sighting?  8:30 EST, FSC

Hannover vs Bayern Munich - After a couple of years of underachieving, Bayern are looking like one of the 5 best sides in Europe at the moment.  Expect them to brush aside Hannover.  11am EST, GOLTV

Queen’s Park Rangers vs Chelsea - Be sure to don your morning coat and top hat for this one, as it’s an upper crust only derby in the poshest part of West London.  Both clubs have been around forever, but meetings are rare, thanks largely to QPR’s mediocrity.  New man Joey Barton has helped with that, but while may be all right on the pitch, but he’s far too uncouth to invite to tea. And don’t even get us started on that nouveau riche Roman Abramovich - you know how he made his money.  Crumpet anyone?  11am EST, FSC

Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao - Another good one from Spain. Both these teams will be firmly focused on what is looking on like an increasingly competitive race for Spain’s final 2 Champions League spots.  Valencia’s current European campaign is threatening to go pear-shaped, with just 2 draws from three matches, but there’s still time to right the ship.  TACTICS NERD ALERT - Valencia’s Unai Emery and Bilbao’s Marcelo Bielsa are renowned as two of the most tactically innovative managers around. Expect false nines, inverted wingers, and Zonal Marking’s Michael Cox to be tweeting deliriously.  2pm EST, GolTV

Bologna vs Lazio - Lazio are coming off of their biggest win in 2 years, a last minute, cone from behind home win over Roma in the derby della capitale. In classic Italian fashion, they probably won’t give two shits about this one away from home, but new signing Miroslav Klose (who bagged the winner in Rome) is so damned German and professional that he’ll probably score anyway.  2:30 EST, FSC

Villareal vs Levante - More Champions league implications here, as surprise side (and FANB favorites) Levante face off against a VIllarreal side that has been La Liga’s biggest disappointment to date.. They showed signs of life on Tuesday before losing to Man City though — now that we’re all paying attention, who wants to be that this is the weekend Levante fall back to earth?  4pm EST, FSC.

IF YOU HAVE TO PICK JUST ONE - It’s al about the Manchester derby.  The atmosphere will be crackling, the pressure intense, and there’ll be loads of talent on display. Let’s hope the game lives up to the hype.  

It was a dramatic day in the Champions League group of death Tuesday, one that, by the end of the group stage, we may all look back on as pivotal.   Group A was always likely to come down to the wire, and still may, but after yesterday’s results, the picture is clearer. The door is open for Champions League “upstarts” Man City, and Napoli – the real upstarts here – find their window closing. 

Kun Aguero’s late goal earned City 3 points at home, and overcame another inexplicably nervy Champions League performance. On paper, Villareal were the perfect side for City at the perfect time. Despite a talented roster, Villareal have not recovered this season from the loss of playmaker Santi Cazorla (to Malaga) and are off to a dismal start, but domestically and in Europe.  Tipped to challenge for a Champions League place in Spain,  they’re currently sitting in 14th, with just one win and 2 draws from 7 games.   

The form book held — both teams were nervous and sloppy to start the game. David Silva was uncharacteristically caught in possession, leading to a Villarreal goal just 4 minutes into the game. Villarreal, for their part, seemed determined to return the favor,  and much of the rest of the first half consisted of the Spanish side needlessly playing themselves into trouble, only for a disjointed city to fail to take advantage.  Fittingly, it was an own goal from Marchena, just before halftime, that levelled things. 

Villarreal were desperate, and so it’s no surprising that they were better in the 2nd half. Their passing improved, but, unfortunately for them, their efficiency in the final third did not, and Aguero eventually punished them. That he could come on as a substitute demonstrates the remarkable depth that should make City firm favorites to progress in this group.

Meanwhile, in Naples, it was a similar story. Like City, Napoli were aided by an own goal just before halftime - this time from Holger Badstuber, and were then dominated in the second half by their visitors.  Bayern created a raft of chances, and Napoli, while resilient, earned a point thanks largely to De Sanctis’ save from Mario Gomez’ pathetic penalty. Napoli were set up to counter as always, and had dangerous moments going forward – one of which led to Batstuber’s error – but they were also repeatedly opened up at the back, and fortunate that Bayern did not punish them further. 

On paper, it’s a good result for Napoli, and 5 points from three games is nothing to sneeze at.  But in practice, it may simply not be enough. Napoli must travel to Bayern, then host City before finishing away to Villarreal. Now with 4 points, City’s remaining group games are away to Villarreal, away to Napoli, and home against Bayern.

Circle your calendars: the November 22nd fixture in Naples against City will be crucial. Entering the group, Napoli knew that if form held, they would need to spring one upset at home (with a win away unlikely) to advance, and the first of those chances, against Bayern, came and went on Tuesday.  If they don’t beat City at home, the odds are stacked against them. Napoli are a fun, entertaining side, but they’re also a bit of a one-trick pony, and I’m not sure that, over the course of the group, their stylish counterattacks will give them the impetus to get the 2 wins they’ll likely need to go through.

That is, of course, unless City choke it away.  Many can make excuses and say that the club doesn’t have much experience in Europe, but City are a team full of seasoned, experienced professionals, and for them to twice produce such ragged and ineffective performances at home in the group stage – against a scuffling Villarreal side, and a Napoli team that’s not exactly renowned for showing up in big games - is both inexplicable and unacceptable. Mancini and others can try to sell  Manchester City as Champions League underdogs, but the fact is that their depth, experience, and, of course, wealth, dwarf the Italian side’s. It’s time for them to start producing performances worthy of their talent. 

Still, you just get the feeling that yesterday was Napoli’s chance. if things had broken the other way — a Napoli win or a City draw — the story would have been different. Instead, Aguero’s goal has let City up off the mat, and saved Mancini’s bacon – for now. 

Liverpool v Manchester United. 7:30 AM ET on ESPN2 Manchester United’s 19th title last season broke the tie with Liverpool for most top flight championships, a subject on which the away fans at Anfield Saturday will doubtless have plenty to say. Those that can get in, that is. Liverpool have graciously cut Man U’s ticket allocations by over a thousand, citing either previous bad behavior by Red Devils supporters or sensitivity to Sir Alex Ferguson’s sides obvious superiority, I can’t remember which.

Distractions at Anfield?

It’s been a tumultuous past few days at Anfield. Owner John Henry has taken time out from fomenting chaos at Fenway Park to announce to the UK media that a) he thought the Mersey was a kind of cow and b) he has no idea what he’s doing. Meanwhile, his second in command cheerfully opined that, since no one abroad wants to see the lower tier clubs that have been giving Liverpool fits the last few seasons, the club have had enough of this TV revenue sharing thing and would very much like more of the money from international broadcast rights, please. To which fellow superclubs Chelsea and Manchester United crossed their fingers behind their backs and said No we would never disrespect the sacred Barclay’s Premier League competition like that. Riiiiight.

Presumably, then, J. W. Henry and the Glazers will take time away from twirling their moustaches and toasting evil to watch some of the game from the Anfield luxury boxes, but it’s going to be extra hard for J-Dub, at least, to focus. Why? Because 1% Liverpool shareholder Lebron James is going to be there! He’ll take time away from his busy schedule of playing twitter-footsie with Pete Carroll and rubbing the rest of the US’s noses in their economic woes to jet-set across the pond this weekend. Way to make the NBA players sympathetic during a work stoppage, ‘Bron! Nothing speaks to the American working class like soccer!

Maybe Sporty Lebron will watch some of the game while Bizness Lebron counts his money, because it should be a fairly exciting contest. Liverpool have managed o beat Man U three straight times at Anfield, a streak Kenny Dalglish and the home support, desperately clinging to faded glory, will really be hoping continues. It’ll be a tall order, of course. Man U have Vidic and Ferdinand, their first choice CB pairing, back fit to go with the usual dazzling array of attacking talent. Wayne Rooney, of course, will be frothing at the mouth to put his asinine red card in England’s match against Montenegro behind him. That could mean anything from a hat-trick to another red for young Wayne—has anyone checked what odds his father is laying?

Oh Right, the match

The atmosphere will be fever pitch. Overrated but essential midfielder Stevie Gerrard will be making his first start since returning from injury, Luis Suarez and Nani will be going great guns to try and out-dive each other, and SAF and King Kenny will be exchanging unintelligible Scottisch obscenities. All while Dirk Kuyt toils quietly. The Premier League: It’s everywhere you wanna be, baby. Despite Liverpool’s recent run in this fixture, you have to make the Red Devil’s favorites; after all, Liverpool won’t have Wes Brown to kick around any more. Game on at 7:30 am ET on ESPN2, which means there’s a good chance we’ll hear Steve McManaman quietly weeping on air. Seriously, he shouldn’t be allowed to do this fixture.